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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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Showing 1206 to 1210 news of total 6871 |
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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