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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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