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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
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Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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