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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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