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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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