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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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