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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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