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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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