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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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