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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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Showing 1166 to 1170 news of total 6871 |
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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