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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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