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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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