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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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