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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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Showing 1051 to 1055 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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