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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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