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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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