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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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