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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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