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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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