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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
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Showing 1106 to 1110 news of total 6871 |
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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