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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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