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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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