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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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