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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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