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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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