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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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Showing 1141 to 1145 news of total 6871 |
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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