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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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