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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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