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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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