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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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