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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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