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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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Showing 1016 to 1020 news of total 6871 |
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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