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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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Showing 1011 to 1015 news of total 6871 |
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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