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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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