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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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