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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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