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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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