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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
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