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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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