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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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