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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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