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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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