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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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