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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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