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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
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Showing 926 to 930 news of total 6871 |
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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