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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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