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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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