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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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