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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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