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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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