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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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